Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 53100.612507 56283.200254 59473.465766 62908.766466 66500.767340 70143.126152 74113.157348
2024-10-27 47465.531545 52277.360221 57245.344788 62749.451069 68668.361585 74833.564620 81732.350666
2024-11-03 44322.422091 50299.737808 56613.972002 63763.837279 71617.359176 79963.366463 89485.462432
2024-11-10 41787.771916 48634.388351 56006.916125 64507.386660 74008.373133 84271.078669 96164.494101
2024-11-17 39498.508289 47009.479897 55235.361457 64870.875432 75804.325312 87781.151955 101847.696075
2024-11-24 37323.558599 45342.108028 54260.683752 64858.451095 77048.305238 90569.898856 106640.261323
2024-12-01 35619.161821 44093.327256 53652.602599 65160.287062 78559.706332 93590.681019 111644.481687
2024-12-08 33956.146150 42791.315934 52891.568150 65199.711254 79695.680056 96126.784629 116055.416081
2024-12-15 32967.949041 42223.283155 52932.017653 66125.345914 81822.972123 99781.309285 121750.553757
2024-12-22 31478.847386 40978.830769 52104.413158 65962.098804 82617.986925 101847.497373 125572.052339
2024-12-29 30762.052225 40632.054286 52315.905602 67010.381151 84830.012337 105568.319655 131344.144095
2025-01-05 29835.473669 39980.822614 52119.054449 67531.041726 86384.597369 108498.125366 136181.396553
2025-01-12 28697.193649 39036.858141 51544.773377 67582.921617 87379.064924 110784.237789 140299.706577
2025-01-19 27505.089820 37981.124732 50794.165801 67384.460153 88044.132593 112662.726878 143931.782162
2025-01-26 26992.149090 37767.803654 51074.935991 68452.037856 90258.400636 116420.392983 149855.737273
2025-02-02 26385.484923 37405.597943 51145.066078 69237.632999 92113.673459 119741.784825 155264.177677
2025-02-09 25637.292579 36828.297712 50915.386614 69621.991429 93453.015840 122425.036317 159898.367769
2025-02-16 24759.043922 36046.843482 50394.472432 69608.792965 94272.108906 124454.471765 163726.309741
2025-02-23 24071.366661 35494.243671 50147.579073 69928.143048 95498.729974 126985.011992 168181.309283
2025-03-02 23305.280711 34808.920945 49703.056015 69969.852819 96355.044403 129044.582412 172051.424607
2025-03-09 22958.778640 34681.250597 49982.500051 70949.119777 98414.194048 132623.656504 177845.349781
2025-03-16 22173.841095 33924.039612 49401.842139 70776.425039 98968.715608 134292.501715 181234.453218
2025-03-23 21922.017515 33897.364272 49792.123043 71885.291188 101191.532868 138091.105477 187340.972376